Cropping Systems Forecast and Evaluation Project

Welcome to the cropping systems forecast and evaluation project website. The project aims to provide information to assist decision making. 

  1. During the growing season by providing real-time information on soil water, nitrogen status as well as crop growth and yield predictions for 20 cropping systems across Iowa;
  2. At the end of the growing season by benchmarking production, economic and environmental performance (e.g. NO3 leaching) of the studied cropping systems, and by illustrating yield gaps and management practices to close the gaps while decreasing N loss (click here for an example).

In-season information is provided in this website. End of season benchmarks will be provided as PDF reports or ICM newsletters. Users are encouraged to subscribe  to receive email updates when new forecasts are placed in the website (usually every 2nd week after crop emergence) and receive the evaluation reports.    

Our approach combine use of high resolution soil and crop measurements (see management)  and synthetic weather files that contain actual, forecasted and historical weather data. All this information is synthesized and analyzed within the APSIM cropping systems modeling platform. The workflow is illustrated in Fig 1. APSIM simulates crop growth and soil water and N balances  on a daily basis using mechanistic science-based algorithms. Yield predictions account for water and nitrogen limitations but not pest and diseases. Water and nitrate leaching in tile drainage are also simulated. For more information about APSIM click here. 

How to use this website?flow chart of website intent and flow

  • To view details on the cropping systems, sites, management, measurements go to “management tag”
  • To view weather, soil and crop forecasts by cropping system go to “forecast tag”.
  • Weather information includes gdd, rain, max and min temp and it is updated daily.
  • Soil water and NO3-N by layer  (0-1’, 1-2’, 2-3’)  is updated bi-weekly. User can visualize how much water and nitrogen is the profile and see predictions on how much water and nitrogen the crop will be using over the next days
  • Crop yield predictions includes % change from long-term average, and predicted best case scenario (potential), median, and worst case scenario in bu/ac. In addition we provide crop staging prediction and number of heat/frost days. Information is updated bi-weekly
  • To view a comparison of all cropping systems in terms of yields, rain, gdd, N uptake and crop water use go to “crop systems comparison”. Information is updated bi-weekly

FACTS is an ongoing project developed to forecast and evaluate in real-time soil-crop dynamics at  specific ISU research fields (field scale) and at regional scale. Predictions will be frequently updated as new information becomes available. The project investigators and Iowa State University are not responsible for extrapolations made by individuals to other fields. Information from this website can be used for presentations without further permission if used in its entirety and credit is given to the Iowa State University FACTS project. Information from this website cannot be used in publications or other model improvement activities without prior permission of the project investigators.